All you need is the growth rate to collapse. But the point is not abt individuals, but the system. 2/ Yes, nitpickers & other idiots, such a filter will fail to select people who got recently infected. This is fake credentials to het benefits.
For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew than). Among other defects, “science oriented” quacks don’t get the arrow of time. For instance, this crank Ivor Cummins doesn’t realize the difference between flying today (knowing what we know today) & flying June 7 (knowing what we knew then). I believe that overactive testing (even if high error rate) + masks + constraining superspreaders effectively allow you to keep functioning. 100% go through PCR testing before entering, on top of the need to produce a 72h test. We discuss 1) the errors in ignoring scaling for pandemics, why a doctor’s micro-expertise doesn’t transfer to collective risks, 2) how evidence based medicine is closer to anecdote based medicine owing to silent risks, 3) the risks of morbidity must be accounted for 4) how the dangers of vaccines do not What’s the betting market for Saudi Arabia before Nov 1? Beirut Airport. Taleb, le penseur qui va changer votre vie (pdf) Nassim Nicholas Taleb, écrivain, statisticien et essayiste, professeur d’ingénierie du risque à l’université de New York. YFAtVpRihIĮxpected Shortfall Estimation for Apparently Infinite-Mean Models of Operational Risk You do not know what is going to happen, and therefore it is going to be one or the other 50-50," says on the 2020 election. "You have to treat it as an opaque system.
Why 10 months into the pandemic we still do not have systematic testing?" – /QLttgNKA0u "We can focus immediately on the simplest solution and the one with the smallest economic cost– testing would be the ideal solution. Anyway, let’s have a look at what NNT’s been up to since mid September… Let me guess… math, and squid ink.Ĭan we all acknowledge that the REAL winner of this election is critique of election forecasting techniques, and his proposed approach-treating elections like option contracts. Thing is, the reason I started collecting NNT’s tweets was because he initially was in the habit of deleting them every few months, which he has apparently stopped doing. Well, Twitter changed their code again and broke my scraper and it’s taking me a long time to find an alternative.
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